If someone has told you to hold off selling “until the market picks up”, ask them one question: whose forecast are they relying on? 2026 has been a lesson in how quickly the experts change their minds.
How the forecasts unravelled
According to Which?, at the start of the year Rightmove and Savills both forecast a 2% rise in house prices for 2026. Nationwide expected 2% to 4%, and Zoopla 1.5%. Then the mortgage market turned. At the start of June, Savills updated to a 2% fall. In August, Rightmove downgraded to between 0% and a 2% fall, and Zoopla cut to a 1% rise. Which? says all of them cited rising mortgage costs as the reason.
Those costs have not eased. Which? reports average two-year fixed rates of 5.93% and five-year fixes of 5.95%. On 5 November the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4%. One analyst quoted by Property Industry Eye described mortgage rates rising to 5.5% and sales agreed down 9% as a “deteriorating end-market backdrop”.
What prices are actually doing
Even the measures disagree. On Which?’s summary of the latest indices:
- Land Registry: annual growth of 0.9% to August, with the average UK home at £273,000
- Rightmove (October, asking prices): up 1.0% on the month, down 0.1% on the year
- Nationwide (October): up 0.5% on the year
- Lloyds, previously Halifax (October): down 1.2% on the year
Four respectable sources, four different answers. If the professionals cannot agree on where prices are today, nobody can tell you where they will be in six months.
Buyers are fewer, and slower
Rightmove reported a 10% fall in buyer demand and a 9% fall in sales agreed in its latest results, according to Property Industry Eye. HMRC estimates 94,800 transactions in September, down 4% on a year earlier. Rightmove says sellers are currently taking an average of 67 days just to secure a buyer, and that is before conveyancing, which is where many sales stall.
Why forecasts are the wrong tool for your decision
Forecasts predict averages. You are selling one property, with its own condition, location, lender appetite and chain. An average rise of 1% tells you nothing about whether a buyer’s mortgage offer survives to exchange.
Forecasts also move the wrong way for people who wait. Someone who held back in January expecting a 2% rise has watched the outlook worsen. Meanwhile their mortgage interest, council tax, insurance and bills have kept running, and none of those costs are forecast to fall.
Most importantly, forecasts do not pay your bills. If you are behind on payments, facing a divorce, holding an inherited or tenanted property, or simply cannot afford to carry two homes, the question is not “what will prices do?” It is “what does waiting cost me every month, and what can I rely on?”
The questions worth asking instead
Work out your monthly cost of holding the property. Ask your agent for realistic achieved prices on comparable homes, not the asking prices they use to win your instruction. Ask what share of their sales fall through, and how long their slowest took. Then compare that certainty with the alternatives.
The cash sale alternative
A cash buyer does not depend on a mortgage offer, so rate rises and valuation downgrades do not derail the deal. We can usually complete in 7 to 28 days, on the date that suits you. The trade-off is honest and simple: a cash sale is typically at a discount to full open-market value, and you decide whether certainty and speed are worth that to you. For many sellers under pressure, a guaranteed sale beats a hoped-for higher price that never arrives.
Sources: Which?, “What’s happening to house prices?” (updated 6 November 2026); Property Industry Eye (9 November 2026); HMRC transactions via Which?. General information only.
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